CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 23/01 - 06Z MON 24/01 2005
ISSUED: 22/01 21:00Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across NW Germany ... Benelux ... NE France

General thunderstorms are forecast across the central Mediterranean.

SYNOPSIS

Omega block is FCST to establish over the eastern Atlantic during the period ... leaving central ... eastern and northern Europe covered with extensive quasi-stationary upper low. Vort maxima at its periphery are expected to cross the North Sea/Germany and the N Mediterranean respectively during the period. Transient SFC low is forecast to develop ahead of the central European vort max ... other vort max will induce SFC low along main frontal boundary stretching across the N Mediterranean by Sunday 12Z.

DISCUSSION

...NW Germany ... Benelux ... NE France...
It looks that cellular convection will form over the North Sea and N Germany in association with the vort max late Sunday evening/night. Uncertainty exists on the depth of the convection ... but confidence is rather high that a few TSTMS will be possible. It looks that there will be a rather narrow sector over W Germany and Benelux where deep-layer and low-level shear may be sufficient for at least briefly organized TSTMS ... capable of producing marginally severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail. Allower threat it too low for a SLGT though.

...central Mediterranean...
It looks that shallow convection may form late in the period over the central Mediterranean along/ahead of cold front as strong vort max overspreads the region. Shallow nature of the convection... and minimal CAPE should limit severe threat despite increasing shear.

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